Market Report September 15, 2022

CBCRE 2022 Q2 Market Report

Opportunities and Stabilization in Q2 2022

As the market progresses through 2022, we are seeing a transition to a more normal and balanced market than what we have been experiencing in the past few years. The expansive growth seen in 2020 and 2021 has helped to set the stage for a new sense of value and opportunity in Stowe and the surrounding areas. There has been an increase in inventory, which historically happens at the end of Q2 and into Q3, thus allowing a return to a more stabilized market environment. This means there are excellent opportunities for both buyers and sellers to achieve their goals, a testament to the strength of our area.

There was a decrease in sales volume for single-family homes in Q2 compared to a year ago. At the same time, we saw the median sales price increase, while the average sales price decreased. This was mainly driven by fewer sales above $1 million in Q2 2022. As we move into Q3, historically one of our busiest quarters we expect these numbers to continue to refine themselves.

As we transition into a more balanced market we are returning to less of a fevered environment and one where both buyers and sellers work together to reach the common goal of a successful transaction. Our belief is that there remain opportunities for all parties in transitional markets, having the right real estate professional to help guide them through these changing markets is paramount.

Across the region, there was an increase in inventory, in Stowe and Lamoille North there was a 10% increase in new listings compared to last year. In Stowe, it was more pronounced in that there was a 28% jump in new listings. Waterbury saw a decrease in inventory, dropping by 28%.

Stowe saw a decrease in overall sales volume compared to 2021, with a decrease of 41% in Q2 2022. While there was a decrease in sales, there was an increase in inventory, providing buyers with more options. Inventory in Stowe was up by 28%. The median and average selling prices moved in different directions during Q2. The average sales price dipped by almost 7%, mostly due to fewer homes trading above $1 million. The median sales price rose by just over 5%, which can be attributed to most of the homes at or below $1 million trading above their asking price. The average selling price for Q2 was $983K, down from $1.057M in 2021. The median selling price was $830K, up from $790K in 2021.

The luxury market in Stowe for Q2 2022, while not the dominant driver of the market, still saw 6 single-family home sales above $1 million, with the highest being an off-market sale at $1.786 million. Compare this to Q2 2021 where there were 9 sales, with the highest selling price of $3.4M. Additionally, last year in Q2 there were two more above $2M, which helped to drive the average price higher. The average days on market for the luxury market in Q2 2022 was 62, compared to 22 days a year ago. The median days on market were actually lower with 7 days on market in Q2 2022 compared to 15 in 2021. Given the small sample size of this section of the market, a few sales can have a large impact. The overall luxury market should be more defined as we move through Q3 2022.

Currently, there are 26 single-family homes on the market in Stowe ranging from $435K to $16M. The majority of these homes are priced above $1M, 17, in total, with 9 priced above $2M. Historically, it is typical to see inventory increase at the end of Q2 and into Q3, which is what is happening this year, thus returning to a more normalized market.

The condo market saw an increase in both the number of sales, by 6.67% and new listings, by 35%, compared to last year. There was a dramatic decrease in average days on market by 65%, confirming buyers’ desires to have a place in Stowe with the ability to not carry the responsibility of a single-family home. The average number of days on market in Q2 2022 was 45 compared to 125 days a year ago.  The median days on market was 3 compared to 80 in Q2 2021. The average and median sales prices rose 36% and 27%, respectively. While there were some higher-priced sales located at Stowe Mt. Resort in 2021, 2022 has seen dramatic shifts upwards for established properties.  Properties like Topnotch, Landmark Meadow, Stonybrook, and Covered Bridge Condos all saw record sales prices.

Land saw little change in terms of parcels sold year over year with 7 trading in Q2 2022 and 9 parcels trading last year. The biggest changes came in average and median pricing. The average sales price dropped from $519K in 2021 to $437K in 2022, this is mainly due to two sales over $1M last year. The median price had a significant shift upwards this year, moving from $189K to $415K in 2022. In addition to the move upwards in median pricing, the average days on market dropped from 167 to 31 in 2022. Land remains scarce in Stowe, so those with an appetite for building will find less to choose from than a year ago.

Our office is proud to report that we represented the sale of the highest-priced commercial property in Q2 2022 with the sale of the Springer-Miller property.  We represented both buyers and sellers in this transaction, which sold for $5.35 million and is a property that has over 26,000 square feet of office space and sits on 9.5 acres.

In Lamoille County, an area comprising 9 towns, in addition to Stowe, there was a decrease in overall sales by 15%, which was reflective of the market as a whole. The average and median price increases were also more moderate compared to Q2 2021, they increased by 6.44% and 7.14%, respectively. The most impactful data from Q2 2022 is that the average and median days on market went down significantly, 50% and 61%, respectively. This shows the attractiveness of Lamoille County, offering Vermonters access to high-quality jobs, healthcare services, and lifestyle activities. With an overall increase in new listings for Q2 2022 of 16.5% this area remains a great option for buyers.

Land sales saw a more than 50% reduction in overall sales, but as with all other segments of the market, the average and median prices saw significant gains. The average price increased to $160K from $112K a year before. The median price increased to $101K from $75K in 2021. As with home sales, there was a shift downwards in terms of average and median days on the market. The average number of days on the market was 122 and the median was 54, compared to 230 and 158 in 2021. As land becomes harder to find in Stowe and for those who want more space and privacy, land north of Stowe remains an attractive option.

Waterbury saw declines across the board in terms of number of sales, new listings, and average and median sales prices.  Where the market excelled was the sales price compared to the listing price, which was up by 6%, showing there remains strong competition for properties within this market. The number of sales dropped by 30% compared to the year before and this is a direct result of limited inventory. The average and median sales prices were down 28% and 39% respectively. The average sales price went from $685K to $505K and the median sales price went from $625K to $401K. There was a slight drop in average and median days on market, 7% and 14% respectively. There are 11 active listings available, ranging from $285K to $1.6M.

Land in Waterbury did see a decrease in sales, with 3 parcels sold in Q2 of 2022, compared to 5 in 2021. Although there was a decrease, the average and median sales prices did jump, given all 3 properties sold above $290K. The average sales price went from $181K to $304K and the median moved from $190K to $298K. There are only two parcels available on the market.

Since Waterbury has such a small sample size in single-family and land sales, we will continue to monitor the market to seek further indicators of where 2022 is headed, given the overall lack of inventory available, even with decreases seen in Q2, we expect sales in Waterbury to remain strong.

In transitional markets, it’s paramount to have an expert advisor at your side as you make decisions; whether that is when to list or how to structure your offer to be the most competitive. This remains true for those considering selling their properties as well. Making sure you have a trusted advisor to help you determine the right pricing strategy is even more important in these markets. Having access to resources unique to this profession, knowledge, and expertise; agents are equipped to provide their clients with up-to-the-minute market data information, and new listing alerts from MLS, helping clients to make informed decisions in an effort to achieve the best outcome. All this along with leading technologies render support and advice that is critical for Sellers and Buyers to have as well.